[SMM Analysis] Ferrochrome Production Rebounded in October, Expected to Hover at Highs in November

According to SMM statistics, high-carbon ferrochrome production in October 2025 increased by 28,200 mt compared to September, up 3.55%, and was up 10.96% YoY. The main increase came from the Inner Mongolia region in northern China, where some high-carbon ferrochrome producers successively resumed production of submerged arc furnaces during the month, leading to an actual production increase of 5.14% month-on-month. Additionally, regions such as Sichuan and Guangxi in south China leveraged the advantage of lower electricity prices during the rainy season and implemented off-peak production, maintaining stable output. The September-October peak season exerted a positive effect, with stainless steel production continuing to rebound, strengthening procurement demand for raw material ferrochrome. In October, the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome rose again by 200 yuan to 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), aligning with mainstream market expectations and providing some support to the ferrochrome market. With profit margins somewhat secured, most ferrochrome producers actively fulfilled long-term contract orders. According to the report, the total ferrochrome production of major South African chrome enterprises in Q3 2025 was only 3,000 mt, down 99.81% QoQ and down 99.9% YoY. Meanwhile, China's ferrochrome imports in September were 223,800 mt, down 26.5% YoY. Consequently, production cuts and shutdowns at overseas ferrochrome operations became a major factor influencing the increase in domestic ferrochrome production. The tight supply-demand balance fundamentals prompted ferrochrome producers to maintain active production, with operating rates staying at relatively high levels.

Looking ahead to November, ferrochrome production is expected to hover at highs. On October 27, Tsingshan announced its November tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement remained flat at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), which, to some extent, supports stable operation in the ferrochrome market. Furthermore, on one hand, new ferrochrome capacity is being released; a high-carbon ferrochrome producer in Inner Mongolia started production on two 48,000 kVA submerged arc furnaces, with expected monthly production of approximately 18,000 mt under normal operation. On the other hand, influenced by abundant water levels this year, although regions like Sichuan have entered the transitional period between dry and rainy season, the increase in electricity prices is relatively small. With stable production costs, most ferrochrome producers maintain normal operation and currently have no plans for production cuts. Meanwhile, imports of ferrochrome remaining low further stimulates domestic producers to actively maintain production. However, considering the gradual entry into the off-season, downstream stainless steel mills have made production cut plans, and subsequent weakened demand for ferrochrome may impact the production plans of ferrochrome producers.